Propensity modeling predicts which of your current donors are most likely to take a specific action soon, like starting recurring giving or upgrading a gift. Avid trains the model on donors who already took that action, then scores the rest of your file to find who looks similar. Use this article to understand how propensity models work, how Target Audience Size and eligibility requirements affect them, and how to create or refresh one from Pathways > Manage Audiences.
Use this article when
- You want to prioritize which current or lapsed donors to ask next, rather than find brand-new prospects.
- You're setting up a propensity model for the first time and need to know what your seed segment (the segment that defines the behavior you're modeling) has to include.
- You want to know exactly who a propensity audience includes and how many accounts it will contain.
- You need to refresh an existing propensity model and want to know what refreshing actually does.
What is propensity modeling?
Propensity modeling predicts which donors are most likely to take a specific action in the near future.
In plain terms: Avid looks at what past donors looked like right before they took an action, such as starting recurring giving, then finds donors in your file who currently look similar.
For agency partners: technical definition
A propensity model is a supervised classification model. It is trained on labeled outcomes (donors who did vs. did not take the action) and produces a probability score for each donor.
Avid uses point-in-time feature engineering to avoid leakage. Training features are built from donor behavior before the qualifying action; scoring features are built from each donor's current profile.
How your seed segment and scoring audience work
This is the most common question about propensity models: what exactly gets used to train the model, and who ends up in the resulting audience? Here's the direct answer.
- Your seed segment's filters directly define who trains the model. Whatever your segment's filters currently return is the seed. Avid does not add or remove anyone from it.
- Avid then scores everyone else in the same constituent data blend your seed segment is built on — every other donor in that data source, excluding anyone already in your seed segment and anyone marked as deceased. The resulting audience never includes people who are already in your seed. Avid does not limit scoring to non-donors or any other subset; it's everyone else in that data blend.
- The result is a fixed-size list. Avid ranks everyone in that scoring pool by predicted likelihood and returns exactly as many accounts as you set in Target Audience Size — the highest-scoring accounts, not everyone above some cutoff score.
- Avid also builds in safeguards so the model only learns from information that would have been known before the behavior happened. It isn't trained on hindsight.
Expected result: the propensity audience Avid creates never contains members of your original seed segment, and its size always matches the Target Audience Size you entered.
Propensity vs. lookalike: quick difference
Propensity models and lookalike models both use statistical matching, but they solve different problems.
| Lookalike model | Propensity model | |
|---|---|---|
| Primary goal | Find new people | Prioritize existing donors |
| Best for | Acquisition | Retention, upgrades, cultivation |
| Population | Prospects / non-donors | Current and lapsed donors in your CRM (customer relationship management system) |
| Output | New audience expansion | Ranked list of who to ask now |
Examples of when to use propensity (and why)
- Recurring donor conversion. Identify one-time donors who resemble past donors right before they became recurring donors.
- Appeal theme affinity. Find donors likely to respond to a specific appeal theme based on who responded to similar themes before.
- Next best ask. Rank donors by likelihood of responding to your next planned ask, so you can prioritize outreach.
- Lapsed donor re-engagement. Find lapsed donors who look like donors who successfully came back in the past.
- Channel optimization. Predict which donors are most likely to respond through a specific channel, based on past channel-response patterns.
When not to use propensity
- You want to acquire new donors who have never given before. Use a lookalike model instead.
- Your seed segment doesn't have transaction history to learn from.
- You need a one-time list based only on current attributes, not predicted future behavior.
- Your audience is too small for the model to find a reliable pattern.
Applies to and prerequisites
| Requirement | Details |
|---|---|
| Permission | Pathways edit permission |
| Plan | Your plan must support propensity models |
| Seed segment ownership | The segment must be one you own (not a modeled or suggested segment) |
| Time | A few minutes to submit; processing time varies by audience size |
Eligibility requirements for your seed segment
Before you can create a propensity model from a segment, that segment must meet all three of the following requirements. If it doesn't, the Create a Propensity Model option is disabled and shows a tooltip explaining why.
- Your segment's source must be a constituent data blend audience. If it isn't, you'll see the tooltip: "Propensity Models require a constituent data blend audience."
- Your segment's filter must include at least one column from transactions. If it doesn't, you'll see the tooltip: "Propensity Models require transactions to be a part of the filter."
- Your segment's current audience size must be over 1,000. Avid requires an audience size above 1,000 to use this option. If your segment is smaller, you'll see the tooltip: "Propensity Models require an audience size above 1,000." You'll need to broaden your segment's filters to grow the audience before you can create a model from it.
There's no limit on how many propensity models you can create from the same seed segment.
Steps: create a new propensity model
- Go to Pathways > Manage Audiences.
- Find or create the seed segment that defines the target action (for example, "donors who started recurring in the last 24 months"). Confirm it meets all three eligibility requirements above.
-
In that segment's row, open the row action menu and select Create a Propensity Model.
You see the Create a Propensity Model modal.
- Enter a value in Target Audience Size. This is the number of accounts to include in the resulting audience. The field is pre-filled with your seed segment's current audience size; the minimum you can enter is
100. - Select Create and wait for processing.
-
When processing finishes, Avid creates a new audience named Propensity Model of {Seed Segment Name}. For example, a seed segment named "Active Donors" produces an audience named "Propensity Model of Active Donors."
The new audience never includes anyone from your original seed segment, and its size matches the Target Audience Size you entered.
- Open that audience and use it in Playbooks and Pathways pushes.
Steps: refresh an existing model
Refreshing fully retrains the model on your current data. It is not a quick rescoring, so plan your refresh timing around when you want the model to reflect your most recent donor activity.
- Go to Pathways > Manage Audiences.
- Find the propensity audience you want to update.
-
In that audience's row, open the row action menu and select Refresh Model (shown as the tooltip Refresh Propensity Model).
You see the Refresh Propensity Model modal.
- Confirm or update Target Audience Size. The field is pre-filled with the audience's current size.
-
Select Refresh and wait for processing.
Avid retrains the model from your current data and rebuilds the audience with the same eligibility rules described above.
Using propensity audiences with Pathways
- Use a propensity audience as the target for a Playbook or Pathways push, the same way you'd use any other audience.
- Combine a propensity audience with other filters to narrow it further before you send.
- Refresh a propensity model periodically so it reflects your current donor activity, especially before a major campaign.
One-line talk track for fundraisers
"Propensity helps us answer: who should we ask, for what ask, and right now."
Next steps
- Review your Manage Audiences list to find a segment that meets the eligibility requirements above.
- Use a propensity audience in your next Playbook or Pathways push.