Propensity modeling: predict your donors' next move

Use this article when

• You want to understand what propensity modeling is and how it works in Avid.
• You need to decide whether a propensity model or a lookalike audience fits your goal.
• You are ready to create or refresh a propensity model from Pathways > Manage Audiences.

Applies to and prerequisites

What is propensity modeling?

Propensity modeling predicts which donors are most likely to take a specific action in the near future.

Avid examines what past donors looked like before they took an action (for example, starting recurring giving), then finds donors in your file who currently look similar. Each donor receives a probability score so you can prioritize outreach.

Propensity vs. lookalike: when to use each

When to use propensity modeling

1. Recurring donor conversion (best first model)

Question: Who is most likely to start recurring in the next 60-90 days?

Recurring conversion is strongly behavior-driven. Leading indicators like recent cadence, frequency, and consistency make this a reliable model. Teams use it to target sustainer upgrade campaigns, trigger recurring email journeys, and prioritize donors for monthly ask calls.

2. Appeal theme affinity

Question: Who is most likely to respond to a specific theme?

Donors often have repeatable emotional and category preferences (disaster relief, education, healthcare, faith-based, animal welfare). Appeal behavior tends to stay consistent across campaigns. Teams use it to build theme-specific audiences, personalize messaging by affinity, and expand campaign reach with better relevance.

3. Next best ask for active donors

Question: What is this donor most likely to do next?

Possible next actions include starting recurring, responding to a specific theme, or upgrading giving. This model uses real transaction and channel behavior to improve ask selection and message fit.

4. Lapsed donor re-engagement

Question: Which lapsed donors are likely to return soon?

Recency and historical giving pace are strong signals. This model helps focus limited reactivation budget on recoverable donors.

5. Channel optimization

Question: Which donors respond best to which channel?

Channel preference is usually stable over time. This model improves response rates while reducing waste.

When not to use propensity

Use a different approach when:

• No clear target action exists -- for example, "good donor" with no measurable event.
• Outcome volume is too small -- not enough historical positives to train on.
• You need brand-new prospects -- use the Create a Lookalike Acquisition Audience option instead.
• You need very long-horizon predictions only -- vague multi-year outcomes with no near-term behavior signal.
• Data is stale or sparse -- recent behavior is missing, which makes scores unreliable.

Where to start

If you build only two models first, start here:

1. Recurring propensity (90-day horizon) -- highest ROI and easiest to explain.
2. Appeal theme affinity -- directly improves targeting and messaging.

Together these unlock better targeting, message match, and timing.

Create a propensity model

1. Go to Pathways > Manage Audiences.

2. Find or create the seed audience that defines the target action.

   Example seed: "donors who started recurring in the last 24 months."

3. Click the action menu (three-dot icon) on the segment row.

4. Select Create a Propensity Model.

   

5. Enter your Target Audience Size.

   This is the number of accounts to include in the resulting audience.

   

6. Click Create and wait for processing.
7. When complete, Avid creates a new audience named Propensity Model of {Seed Segment Name}.
8. Open that audience and use it in Playbooks and Pathways pushes.

Refresh an existing model

Refresh when you want the same modeling logic with the latest donor behavior.

1. Go to Pathways > Manage Audiences.
2. Find the seed audience that already has a propensity model.
3. Click the action menu (three-dot icon) on the segment row.
4. Select Create a Propensity Model again.
5. Enter the new target audience size (or keep the same).
6. Click Create.
7. Wait for processing to complete, then review the updated audience membership before launch.

Other modeling options in Manage Audiences

Avid offers several audience modeling tools from the same action menu. Each serves a different purpose:

Use propensity audiences with Pathways

From Manage Audiences, you can:

• Sync to connected destinations for campaign execution.
• Combine propensity audiences with additional segment filters.
• Route to specific channels based on response patterns.
• Refresh models as behavior changes.
• Measure lift against baseline audiences in Insights.